class: center, middle, inverse, title-slide # The QEDesigns ## EDP 612 Week 7 ### Dr. Abhik Roy --- <script src="https://ajax.googleapis.com/ajax/libs/jquery/3.6.0/jquery.min.js"></script> <script type="text/x-mathjax-config"> MathJax.Hub.Register.StartupHook("TeX Jax Ready",function () { MathJax.Hub.Insert(MathJax.InputJax.TeX.Definitions.macros,{ cancel: ["Extension","cancel"], bcancel: ["Extension","cancel"], xcancel: ["Extension","cancel"], cancelto: ["Extension","cancel"] }); }); </script> <style> section { display: flex; display: -webkit-flex; } section { height: 600px; width: 60%; margin: auto; border-radius: 21px; background-color: #212121; } section p { text-align: center; font-size: 30px; background-color: #212121; border-radius: 21px; font-family: Roboto Condensed; font-style: bold; padding: 12px; color: #bff4ee; margin: auto; } #center { text-align: center; } .center p { margin: 0; position: absolute; top: 50%; left: 50%; -ms-transform: translate(-50%, -50%); transform: translate(-50%, -50%); } .center2 { margin: 0; position: absolute; top: 50%; left: 50%; -ms-transform: translate(-50%, -50%); transform: translate(-50%, -50%); } .tab { display: inline-block; margin-left: 40px; } td, th, tr, table { border: 0 !important; border-spacing:0 !important; } </style> <style type="text/css"> .highlight-last-item > ul > li, .highlight-last-item > ol > li { opacity: 0.5; } .highlight-last-item > ul > li:last-of-type, .highlight-last-item > ol > li:last-of-type { opacity: 1; } .normal-list > ul > li, .normal-list > ol > li { opacity: 1; } </style> --- class: highlight-last-item layout: true --- # Modern Descriptions of Experiments --- ## Randomized Experiment -- + Units are assigned to conditions randomly -- + Randomly assigned units are probabilistically equivalent based on expectancy (if certain conditions are met) -- + Under the appropriate conditions, randomized experiments provide unbiased estimates of an effect --- ## Quasi-Experiments -- + Shares all features of randomized experiments except assignment -- + Assignment to conditions occurs by self-selection -- + Greater emphasis on enumerating and ruling out alternative explanations -- + ... through logic and reasoning, design, and measurement --- # Basic Design Elements and Notation --- class: normal-list ## Assignment -- + Random assignment + Cutoff-based assignment + Other nonrandom assignment + Matching and stratifying + Masking --- class: normal-list ## Measurement -- + Posttest observations + Single posttests + Nonequivalent dependent variables + Multiple substantive posttests + Pretest observations + Single pretest + Retrospective pretest + Proxy pretest + Repeated pretests over time + Pretests on independent samples + Moderator variable with predicted interaction + Measuring threats to validity --- class: normal-list ## Comparison Groups -- + Single nonequivalent groups + Multiple nonequivalent groups + Cohorts + Internal versus external controls + Constructed contrasts + Regression extrapolation contrasts + Normed contrasts + Secondary data contrasts --- class: normal-list ## Treatments -- + Switching replications + Reversed treatments + Removed treatments + Repeated treatments --- ## Notation $$ \require{enclose} $$ <center> <table class=" lightable-paper" style='font-family: "Arial Narrow", arial, helvetica, sans-serif; width: auto !important; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;'> <thead> <tr> <th style="text-align:center;color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> Variable </th> <th style="text-align:left;color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> Description </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td style="text-align:center;width: 20em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> `X` </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 30em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> treatment </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:center;width: 20em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> `O` </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 30em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> observation </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:center;width: 20em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> `R` </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 30em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> random assignment </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:center;width: 20em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> `NR` </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 30em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> nonrandom assignment </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:center;width: 20em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> ` `\(\enclose{horizontalstrike}{X}\)` ` </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 30em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> removed treatment </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:center;width: 20em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> `X_+` </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 30em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> treatment expected to produce an effect in one direction </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:center;width: 20em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> `X_-` </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 30em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> conceptually opposite treatment expected to reverse an effect </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:center;width: 20em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> `C` </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 30em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> cutting score </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:center;width: 20em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> --- </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 30em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> non-randomly formed groups </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:center;width: 20em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> ··· </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 30em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> cohort </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> </center> --- # The Logic of Quasi-Experimentation --- ## Rationale -- + Quasi-experiments are often a necessity given practical and logistical constraints -- + Greater emphasis on construct or external validity rather than cause-effect associations - ***least common*** -- + Funding, ethics, administration - ***somewhat common*** -- + The intervention has already occurred - ***most common*** -- + Sometimes they are the best alternative, even if causal inferences are weaker than is possible with other designs --- ## Central Principles -- + Identification and study of plausible threats to internal validity -- + Careful scrutiny of plausible alternative explanations for treatment-outcome covariation -- + Primacy of control by design -- + Use carefully planned and implemented design elements rather than statistical controls for anticipated confounds -- + Coherent pattern matching -- + Complex (a priori) causal hypotheses that reduce the plausibility of alternative explanations -- + Even so, great care must be taken when planning such studies as numerous threats that cannot be controlled are often operating --- # Designs without Control Groups --- ## One-Group Posttest Only Design -- .center2[ <table class=" lightable-paper" style='font-family: "Arial Narrow", arial, helvetica, sans-serif; width: auto !important; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;'> <thead> <tr> <th style="text-align:center;"> </th> <th style="text-align:center;"> </th> <th style="text-align:center;"> </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> `X` </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 3em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> `O_2` </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 3em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 3em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> Treatment </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 3em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> ` `\(\rightarrow\)` ` </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> Posttest </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> ] -- <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> > Absence of pretest makes it difficult to know if change has occurred and absence of a control group makes it difficult to know what would have happened without treatment -- <br> > Known as a one-shot study --- ## One-Group Pretest-Posttest Design -- .center2[ <table> <thead> <tr> <th style="text-align:center;"> </th> <th style="text-align:center;"> </th> <th style="text-align:center;"> </th> <th style="text-align:center;"> </th> <th style="text-align:center;"> </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> `O_1` </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 3em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> `X` </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 3em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> `O_2` </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 3em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 3em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 3em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 3em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> Pretest </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 3em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> ` `\(\rightarrow\)` ` </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> Treatment </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 3em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> ` `\(\rightarrow\)` ` </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> Posttest </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> ] -- <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> > Adding a pretest provides weak information concerning what might have happened to participants had the treatment not occurred -- <br> > Known as a one-shot study --- ## One-Group Pretest-Posttest Design with Double Pretest -- .center2[ <table> <thead> <tr> <th style="text-align:center;"> </th> <th style="text-align:center;"> </th> <th style="text-align:center;"> </th> <th style="text-align:center;"> </th> <th style="text-align:center;"> </th> <th style="text-align:center;"> </th> <th style="text-align:center;"> </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> `O_1` </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 3em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> `O_2` </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 3em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> `X` </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 3em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> `O_3` </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 3em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 3em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 3em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 3em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 3em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 3em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> Pretest </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 3em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> ` `\(\rightarrow\)` ` </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> Pretest </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 3em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> ` `\(\rightarrow\)` ` </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> Treatment </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 3em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> ` `\(\rightarrow\)` ` </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> Posttest </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> ] -- <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> > Adding multiple pretests reduces the plausibility of maturation and regression effects -- <br> > Additional pretests can confirm maturational trends --- ## One-Group Pretest-Posttest Design Using a Nonequivalent Variable -- .center2[ <table> <thead> <tr> <th style="text-align:center;"> </th> <th style="text-align:center;"> </th> <th style="text-align:center;"> </th> <th style="text-align:center;"> </th> <th style="text-align:center;"> </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> `\{O_{1A}, O_{1B}\}` </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 3em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> `X` </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 3em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> `\{O_{2A}, O_{2B}\}` </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 3em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 3em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 3em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 3em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> Pretest </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 3em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> ` `\(\rightarrow\)` ` </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> Treatment </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 3em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> ` `\(\rightarrow\)` ` </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> Posttest </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> ] -- <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> > Measure `\(A\)` is expected to change because of treatment, `\(B\)` is not -- <br> > Both `\(A\)` and `\(B\)` are expected to respond to the same validity threats in the same way --- ### Example *Lottery ticket sales in convenience stores after introduction of signs in store windows reading “did you buy your ticket?”* <br> <center> <img src="img/pretest-posttest1.png" alt="pretest-posttest" style="width: 600px;"/> <center> --- ## Removed-Treatment Design -- $$ \require{enclose} $$ .center2[ <table> <thead> <tr> <th style="text-align:center;"> </th> <th style="text-align:center;"> </th> <th style="text-align:center;"> </th> <th style="text-align:center;"> </th> <th style="text-align:center;"> </th> <th style="text-align:center;"> </th> <th style="text-align:center;"> </th> <th style="text-align:center;"> </th> <th style="text-align:center;"> </th> <th style="text-align:center;"> </th> <th style="text-align:center;"> </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> `O_1` </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 3em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> `X` </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 3em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> `O_2` </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 3em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> `O_3` </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 3em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> ` `\(\enclose{horizontalstrike}{X}\)` ` </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 3em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> `O_4` </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 3em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 3em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 3em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 3em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 3em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 3em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 3em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 3em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 3em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 3em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> Pretest </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 3em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> ` `\(\rightarrow\)` ` </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> Treatment </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 3em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> ` `\(\rightarrow\)` ` </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> Posttest </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 3em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> ` `\(\rightarrow\)` ` </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> Pretest </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 3em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> ` `\(\rightarrow\)` ` </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> Removal </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 3em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> ` `\(\rightarrow\)` ` </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> Posttest </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> ] -- <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> > Demonstrates that outcomes rise and fall with the presence or absence of treatment --- ### Example *Generally interpretable outcome pattern* <br> <center> <img src="img/removed-treatment1.png" alt="removed-treatment" style="width: 650px;"/> <center> --- ## Repeated-Treatment Design -- $$ \require{enclose} $$ .center2[ <table> <thead> <tr> <th style="text-align:center;"> </th> <th style="text-align:center;"> </th> <th style="text-align:center;"> </th> <th style="text-align:center;"> </th> <th style="text-align:center;"> </th> <th style="text-align:center;"> </th> <th style="text-align:center;"> </th> <th style="text-align:center;"> </th> <th style="text-align:center;"> </th> <th style="text-align:center;"> </th> <th style="text-align:center;"> </th> <th style="text-align:center;"> </th> <th style="text-align:center;"> </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> `O_1` </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 3em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> `X` </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 3em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> `O_2` </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 3em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> ` `\(\enclose{horizontalstrike}{X}\)` ` </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 3em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> `O_3` </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 3em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> `X` </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 3em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> `O_4` </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 3em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 3em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 3em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 3em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 3em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 3em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 3em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 3em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 3em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 3em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 3em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 3em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> Pretest </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 3em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> ` `\(\rightarrow\)` ` </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> Treatment </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 3em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> ` `\(\rightarrow\)` ` </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> Posttest </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 3em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> ` `\(\rightarrow\)` ` </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> Removal </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 3em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> ` `\(\rightarrow\)` ` </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> Posttest </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 3em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> ` `\(\rightarrow\)` ` </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> Treatment </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 3em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> ` `\(\rightarrow\)` ` </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> Posttest </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> ] -- <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> > Few threats could explain a close relationship between treatment introductions and removals and parallel outcome changes --- ### Example *Mean narcotics use over multiple Methadone maintenance on/off conditions* <br> <center> <img src="img/repeated-treatment1.png" alt="repeated-treatment" style="width: 650px;"/> <center> --- # `\(A - B\)` Designs -- + Multiple-baseline design (a class of single-subject designs), or collection of `\(A - B\)` designs, to assess the effects of an intervention across separate baselines -- + Variables >- `\(A\)` = baseline -- >- `\(B\)` = treatment -- + The intervention is introduced in a staggered manner and the baseline provides a predicted level of the dependent variable in absence of the treatment -- + `\(A - B - A\)` designs are sometimes called removal designs (i.e., the treatment is removed) --- ### Example <br> <center> <img src="img/a-b-design1.png" alt="a-b" style="width: 600px;"/> <center> --- # Designs that use a Control Group but no Pretest --- ## Posttest-Only Design with Nonequivalent Control Group -- .center2[ <table class="table" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"> <thead> <tr> <th style="text-align:center;"> </th> <th style="text-align:center;"> </th> <th style="text-align:center;"> </th> <th style="text-align:center;"> </th> <th style="text-align:center;"> </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> `NR` </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 3em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> `X` </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 3em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> `O_1` </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 3em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 3em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> ------ </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 3em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> ------ </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> ------ </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 3em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> ------ </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> ------ </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 3em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 3em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> `NR` </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 3em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 3em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> `O_1` </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 3em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 3em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 3em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 3em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> Non Random Assignment </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 3em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> ` `\(\rightarrow\)` ` </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> Treatment </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 3em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> ` `\(\rightarrow\)` ` </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> Posttest </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> ] -- <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> > Unknown pretest group differences make it extremely difficult to separate treatment effects from selection effects --- ## Posttest-Only Design using an Independent Sample Pretest -- .center2[ <table class="table" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"> <thead> <tr> <th style="text-align:center;"> </th> <th style="text-align:center;"> </th> <th style="text-align:center;"> </th> <th style="text-align:center;"> </th> <th style="text-align:center;"> </th> <th style="text-align:center;"> </th> <th style="text-align:center;"> </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> `NR` </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 3em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> `O_1` </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 3em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> ¦ </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> `X` </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 3em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> `O_2` </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 3em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 3em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 3em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> ------ </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 3em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> ------ </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> ------ </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 3em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> ------ </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> ------ </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 3em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> ------ </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> ------ </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 3em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 3em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 3em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> `NR` </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 3em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> `O_1` </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 3em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> ¦ </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 3em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> `O_2` </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 3em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 3em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 3em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 3em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 3em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 3em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> Non Random Assignment </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 3em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> ` `\(\rightarrow\)` ` </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> Pretest </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 3em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> ` `\(\rightarrow\)` ` </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> Treatment </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 3em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> ` `\(\rightarrow\)` ` </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> Posttest </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> ] -- <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> > Assumes overlapping group membership -- > Useful when -- >> Pretest measurements may be reactive -- >> Cannot follow same groups over time -- >> When interested in studying intact communities whose members change over time --- # Case Control Studies -- + Predominant method for many forms of epidemiological research -- + Used to identify factors that may contribute to a condition by comparing subjects who have that condition (i.e., 'cases ') with those who do not have the condition but are otherwise similar (i.e., 'controls' ) -- + Example: Famously used to determine the association between smoking and lung cancer --- ## Untreated Control Group Design with Dependent Pretest and Posttest Samples -- .center2[ <table class="table" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"> <thead> <tr> <th style="text-align:center;"> </th> <th style="text-align:center;"> </th> <th style="text-align:center;"> </th> <th style="text-align:center;"> </th> <th style="text-align:center;"> </th> <th style="text-align:center;"> </th> <th style="text-align:center;"> </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> `NR` </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 3em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> `O_1` </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 3em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> `X` </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 3em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> `O_2` </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 3em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 3em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 3em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> ------ </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 3em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> ------ </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> ------ </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 3em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> ------ </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> ------ </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 3em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> ------ </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> ------ </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 3em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 3em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 3em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> `NR` </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 3em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> `O_1` </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 3em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 3em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> `O_2` </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 3em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 3em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 3em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 3em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 3em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 3em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> Non Random Assignment </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 3em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> ` `\(\rightarrow\)` ` </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> Pretest </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 3em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> ` `\(\rightarrow\)` ` </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> Treatment </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 3em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> ` `\(\rightarrow\)` ` </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> Posttest </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> ] -- <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> > A selection bias is always present, but the pretest observation allows for determining the magnitude and direction of bias --- ### Outcome Pattern 1 -- > *Both groups grow apart at different average rates in the same direction* -- > This pattern is consistent with treatment effects and can sometimes be causally interpreted, but it is subject to numerous threats, especially selection-maturation -- .pull-right[ <img src="img/outcome1.png" alt="outcome1" style="width: 450px;"/> ] --- ### Outcome Pattern 2 -- > *Spontaneous growth only occurs in the treatment group* -- > Not a lot of reliance can be placed on this pattern as the reasons why spontaneous growth only occurred in the treatment group must be explained (e.g., selection-maturation) -- .pull-right[ <img src="img/outcome2.png" alt="outcome2" style="width: 450px;"/> ] --- ### Outcome Pattern 3 -- > *Initial pretest differences favoring the treatment group diminish over time* -- > Same internal validity threats as outcome patterns #1 and #2 except that selection-maturation threats are less plausible -- .pull-right[ <img src="img/outcome3.png" alt="outcome3" style="width: 450px;"/> ] --- ### Outcome Pattern 4 -- > *Initial pretest differences favoring the control group diminish over time* -- > Subject to numerous validity threats (e.g., selection-instrumentation, selection-history), but generally can be causally interpreted -- .pull-right[ <img src="img/outcome4.png" alt="outcome4" style="width: 450px;"/> ] --- ### Outcome Pattern 5 -- > *Outcomes that crossover in the direction of relationships* -- > Most amenable to causal interpretation and most threats cannot plausibly explain this pattern -- .pull-right[ <img src="img/outcome5.png" alt="outcome5" style="width: 450px;"/> ] --- # Modeling Selection Bias -- - *Simple matching and stratifying* - Overt biases with respect to measured variables/characteristics -- - *Instrumental variable analysis* - Statistical modeling of covariates believed to explain selection biases -- - *Hidden bias analysis* - Difference with respect to unmeasured variables/characteristics - Sensitivity analysis (how much hidden bias would need to be present to explain observed differences) -- - *Propensity score analysis* - Predicted probabilities of group membership - Propensities then used for matching or as covariate --- # Interrupted Time-Series -- A large series of observations made on the same variable consecutively over time -- - Observations can be made on the same units (e.g., people) or on constantly changing units (e.g., populations) -- - Must know the exact point at which a treatment or intervention occurred (i.e., the interruption) -- - Interrupted time-series designs are powerful cause-probing designs when experimental designs cannot be used and when a time series is feasible --- ## Types of Effects -- - Form of the effect (slope or intercept) -- - Permanence of the effect (continuous or discontinuous) -- - Immediacy of the effect (immediate or delayed) -- - Independence of observations -- - (Most) statistical analyses assume observations are independent (one observation is independent of another) -- - In interrupted time-series, observations are autocorrelated (related to prior observations or lags) -- - Requires a large number of observations to estimate autocorrelation -- - Seasonality -- - Observations that coincide with seasonal patterns -- - Seasonality effects must be modeled and removed from a time-series before assessing treatment impact --- .center2[ <img src="img/effect-delay.png" alt="removed-treatment" style="width: 650px;"/> ] --- .center2[ <table class=" lightable-paper" style='font-family: "Arial Narrow", arial, helvetica, sans-serif; width: auto !important; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;'> <thead> <tr> <th style="text-align:center;"> </th> <th style="text-align:center;"> </th> <th style="text-align:center;"> </th> <th style="text-align:center;"> </th> <th style="text-align:center;"> </th> <th style="text-align:center;"> </th> <th style="text-align:center;"> </th> <th style="text-align:center;"> </th> <th style="text-align:center;"> </th> <th style="text-align:center;"> </th> <th style="text-align:center;"> </th> <th style="text-align:center;"> </th> <th style="text-align:center;"> </th> <th style="text-align:center;"> </th> <th style="text-align:center;"> </th> <th style="text-align:center;"> </th> <th style="text-align:center;"> </th> <th style="text-align:center;"> </th> <th style="text-align:center;"> </th> <th style="text-align:center;"> </th> <th style="text-align:center;"> </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> `O_1` </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 3em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> `O_2` </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 3em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> `O_3` </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 3em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> `O_4` </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 3em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> `O_5` </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 3em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> `X` </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 3em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> `O_6` </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 3em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> `O_7` </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 3em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> `O_8` </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 3em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> `O_9` </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 3em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> `O_{10}` </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 3em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 3em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 3em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 3em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 3em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 3em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 3em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 3em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 3em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 3em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 3em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 3em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 3em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 3em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 3em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 3em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 3em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 3em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 3em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 3em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> Prettest </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 3em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> ` `\(\rightarrow\)` ` </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> Pretest </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 3em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> ` `\(\rightarrow\)` ` </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> Pretest </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 3em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> ` `\(\rightarrow\)` ` </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> Pretest </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 3em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> ` `\(\rightarrow\)` ` </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> Pretest </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 3em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> ` `\(\rightarrow\)` ` </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> Treatment </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 3em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> ` `\(\rightarrow\)` ` </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> Posttest </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 3em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> ` `\(\rightarrow\)` ` </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> Posttest </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 3em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> ` `\(\rightarrow\)` ` </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> Posttest </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 3em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> ` `\(\rightarrow\)` ` </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> Posttest </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 3em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> ` `\(\rightarrow\)` ` </td> <td style="text-align:center;width: 10em; color: #ffffff !important;vertical-align: middle !important;"> Posttest </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> ] -- <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> > The basic interrupted time-series design requires one treatment group with many observations before and after a treatment --- .center2[ <img src="img/irr1.png" alt="removed-treatment" style="width: 650px;"/> ] --- .center2[ <img src="img/irr2.png" alt="removed-treatment" style="width: 650px;"/> ] --- .center2[ <img src="img/irr3.png" alt="removed-treatment" style="width: 650px;"/> ] --- .center2[ <img src="img/irr4.png" alt="removed-treatment" style="width: 650px;"/> ] --- .center2[ <img src="img/irr5.png" alt="removed-treatment" style="width: 650px;"/> ] --- .center2[ <img src="img/irr6.png" alt="removed-treatment" style="width: 650px;"/> ] --- # That's It! Any questions?